物流量预测方法研究.pdf

1、武汉理工大学硕士学位论文物流量预测方法研究姓名：王小忠申请学位级别：硕士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：云俊20050501AbstractWiththedevelopmentofmodernizationinchina，economicstructureISchangingfromtraditionalplannedeconomytomarketeconomymodernizedlogisticsalreadytransitedtopr

2、acticalhandlingmomentfromconceptmoment，SOthepredictionaboutthefreightvolumeisveryimportantforthestrategydevelopmentoflogisticsenterpriseButthelogisticsenterpriselieunderwaymoment，thestatisticofhistoricaldataisnotintegral

3、andscientific，SOitisfairlyimportantabouthowtoimprovethepredictiveprecisionaboutthefreightvolumeTherearemanypredictivemethodsnowmorethanhundredBesidesclassicalpredictivemethods，therearemanynewmethods，suchasillegibilitymat

4、hematicprediction、neuralnetworkpredictionBecausethelocalizationofthepredictivemethoditselfandtheconfineofthepredictiveperson’Sknowledge、experience，thepredictiveresultisnotsatisfiedinmanypracticalpredictionSochoosingtheap

5、propriatepredictivemethodswillassurepredictivenicetyEspeciallythescarcityofhistoricaldatawillbringtremendousdifficultforusingthepredictivemodelswhichneedlargenumbersofhistoricaldataIntheinstance，itisveryimportantthatputf

6、orwardakindofefficientpredictivemethodaboutthefreightvolumeThethesisisbasedtheexperienceofoneairport’S《thesurveyandpredictionofthemarketaboutpassengersandcargos))Firstlywriterintroducethedomesticandoverseasstatusaboutthe

7、predictivemethodsofthefreightvolume，thenilluminatethepurposeandmeaningaboutwritingthethesis，afterwardintroducetheinvestigativecontentandmethod，thenwriterdiscourseuponthepredictivecharacterandproblemaboutthefreightvolume，

8、whereafterintroducesomeclassicalpredictivemethods，finallywritercombineapracticalexampletobringforwardakindofefficientpredictivemethodaboutthefrei：ghtvolume，andsummarizethethesisKeywords：thefreightvolume，prediction，combin